Tag: Economy

Simply put, inflationary pressures occur when demand outstrips supply.  However, when demand dries up, recession often follows as the economy shrinks. During the last two periods of great economic stress, the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 and the COVID-related shut-down of March 2020, the Federal Reserve focused on creating demand to sustain the economy and [...]

Until the onset of COVID-19, the US economy had been in a period of slow and steady growth and low inflation since the recovery from the 2008 Great Financial crisis.  COVID-19 broke that cycle – after an initial and dramatic decline, the US economy and financial markets recovered quickly.  This was due to massive governmental [...]

Although the COVID-19 induced recession last year was short-lived, the on-going effects of COVID-19 on the global economy persist.  Prior to the pandemic, the U.S. inflation rate was contained; GDP growth, though positive, was struggling to rise above 2% annually; the super-cycle of commodity price declines was continuing; global supply chains were robust, despite the [...]

The US Economy:  Will it be too hot, too cold, or just right? At first glance, the information we consider in evaluating whether the economy will be “too hot, too cold, or just right” appears to be confusing.  Depending on what data you focus on, a case can be made for any of these three [...]

April 12, 2021 THE US ECONOMY What a difference a year makes.  After some glitches early on, the vaccine roll-out in the United States appears to be going well, especially when compared to the roll-out in the great majority of other countries.  As the US has begun to control the spread of the virus, the [...]

January 19, 2021 First, and most importantly, we hope you are safe and doing well, and we look forward to being able to see many of you in person in 2021. Since March, financial markets and the global economy have been dominated by the spread of COVID-19, the curtailment of economic activity, and the massive [...]

October 19, 2020 If, on December 31, 2019, we were told that the total return on the S&P 500 for the first three quarters of 2020 would be 5.57% (which is what it was), many would have concluded that 2020 would be a relatively normal/uneventful year in the equity markets with the slow but steady [...]

July 28, 2020 After the S&P 500’s downturn, culminating on March 23rd, it rallied 43.36% reaching its post-COVID high on June 5th. Since that time, the index has been essentially flat. [...]

June 08, 2020 Ending on June 3rd, the S&P 500 had the biggest 50-day rally in its history, gaining 37.7% over that period, and the NASDAQ Composite Index set a new all-time high on June 7th. As of the date of this letter, every stock in the S&P 500 is up over the last 10 [...]