Category: Market Commentary

January 19, 2024

Market Commentary: “What, Me Worry?” – Alfred E. Neuman

What a difference a year makes.  In 2022, both the equity and fixed income markets suffered significant declines over market participants’ fears that Fed tightening would lead to a recession but not curb inflation.  Contrast this to 2023 when the Fed indicated the tightening cycle was coming to an end, inflation was receding, growth remained [...]

Contributions from: Howard Coleman, JD

October 20, 2023

A Reversal of Fortune?

At the end of the second quarter, the S&P 500 was up 16.89% for the year, and bonds posted positive returns as well with the yield on the 10-year Treasury falling to 3.84%. With inflation moderating and growth steady, many market participants were predicting a “soft landing” scenario– inflation curtailed without a recession. From Soft [...]

Contributions from: Howard Coleman, JD

July 21, 2023

A New-Found Optimism (But Will It Last)

A year ago, stagflation was considered a plausible scenario for the US economy for the first time since the early 1980s.  The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 9.1% in June 2022, and the Fed was unambiguously stating that it would “do what it takes” to curb inflation regardless of whether its actions put the economy [...]

Contributions from: Howard Coleman, JD

May 16, 2023

Thin Ice – Regional Banks in Commercial Real Estate

This is a whitepaper from Coldstream’s Investment Strategy Group Analyst, Calm Qi, on the mounting pressure in Commercial Real Estate (CRE), especially the office sector, after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.  Although it appears that the collapse of SVB did not result in widespread contagion to other regional banks, we wanted to analyze regional [...]

Contributions from: Calm Qi, Howard Coleman, JD

April 24, 2023

First Quarter Market Commentary

“The Future Ain’t What It Used to Be” – Yogi Berra Economic data indicates that the US economy is currently doing well.  Inflation is high but appears to have peaked last year, US households continue to be in good financial condition, jobs are plentiful, corporate and consumer defaults remain low, and GDP was positive for [...]

Contributions from: Howard Coleman, JD

March 13, 2023

The Silicon Valley Bank Collapse: A Significant Event But Not a 2008-Like Threat to the Financial System

As many of you may have seen, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) experienced a classic “run on the bank” last week and, on Friday, was placed in receivership by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC).  As part of Coldstream’s mission, we thought it important to communicate our views on why the bank failed, what the potential implications [...]

January 20, 2023

The End of an Era

After the Great Financial crisis of 2008 and until 2020, the US economy was in a prolonged period of low inflation and relatively slow growth.  During this period, the Fed thought it necessary to stimulate the economy to meet its 2% inflation target by keeping the Fed Funds rate low and buying bonds in the [...]

Contributions from: Howard Coleman, JD

September 30, 2022

The Triple Threat

High inflation, Fed rate hikes, and recession risk have resulted in the S&P 500 falling into bear market territory this year. They have also resulted in the US bond market having its worst year ever, failing to provide the diversification benefit that bonds have typically provided. For investors, the challenge is to be forward-looking instead [...]

Contributions from: Howard Coleman, JD

July 15, 2022

Where From Here: A Recap of the Second Quarter and Thoughts Going Forward

Until mid-June, the Fed was widely perceived as behind the curve in fulfilling its mandate of price stability. For example, even though inflation was increasing in the first quarter, the Fed was still stimulating the economy by buying government securities and mortgages because of its mistaken view that inflation was transitory. In May, inflation, as measured by [...]

Contributions from: Howard Coleman, JD