Category: Market Commentary

GDP grew at 3.4% in the fourth quarter of 2023 and is predicted to grow by over 2% in the first quarter of 2024. Driven by strong growth and continued optimism about the potential of Artificial Intelligence, the S&P 500 gained 10.56% for the quarter, the best quarterly performance since the first quarter of 2019. [...]

What a difference a year makes.  In 2022, both the equity and fixed income markets suffered significant declines over market participants’ fears that Fed tightening would lead to a recession but not curb inflation.  Contrast this to 2023 when the Fed indicated the tightening cycle was coming to an end, inflation was receding, growth remained [...]

At the end of the second quarter, the S&P 500 was up 16.89% for the year, and bonds posted positive returns as well with the yield on the 10-year Treasury falling to 3.84%. With inflation moderating and growth steady, many market participants were predicting a “soft landing” scenario– inflation curtailed without a recession. From Soft [...]

A year ago, stagflation was considered a plausible scenario for the US economy for the first time since the early 1980s.  The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 9.1% in June 2022, and the Fed was unambiguously stating that it would “do what it takes” to curb inflation regardless of whether its actions put the economy [...]

This is a whitepaper from Coldstream’s Investment Strategy Group Analyst, Calm Qi, on the mounting pressure in Commercial Real Estate (CRE), especially the office sector, after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.  Although it appears that the collapse of SVB did not result in widespread contagion to other regional banks, we wanted to analyze regional [...]

“The Future Ain’t What It Used to Be” – Yogi Berra Economic data indicates that the US economy is currently doing well.  Inflation is high but appears to have peaked last year, US households continue to be in good financial condition, jobs are plentiful, corporate and consumer defaults remain low, and GDP was positive for [...]

As many of you may have seen, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) experienced a classic “run on the bank” last week and, on Friday, was placed in receivership by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC).  As part of Coldstream’s mission, we thought it important to communicate our views on why the bank failed, what the potential implications [...]

After the Great Financial crisis of 2008 and until 2020, the US economy was in a prolonged period of low inflation and relatively slow growth.  During this period, the Fed thought it necessary to stimulate the economy to meet its 2% inflation target by keeping the Fed Funds rate low and buying bonds in the [...]

High inflation, Fed rate hikes, and recession risk have resulted in the S&P 500 falling into bear market territory this year. They have also resulted in the US bond market having its worst year ever, failing to provide the diversification benefit that bonds have typically provided. For investors, the challenge is to be forward-looking instead [...]