Category: Market Commentary

High inflation, Fed rate hikes, and recession risk have resulted in the S&P 500 falling into bear market territory this year. They have also resulted in the US bond market having its worst year ever, failing to provide the diversification benefit that bonds have typically provided. For investors, the challenge is to be forward-looking instead [...]

Until mid-June, the Fed was widely perceived as behind the curve in fulfilling its mandate of price stability. For example, even though inflation was increasing in the first quarter, the Fed was still stimulating the economy by buying government securities and mortgages because of its mistaken view that inflation was transitory. In May, inflation, as measured by [...]

Both the equity and fixed income markets globally have experienced significant drawdowns this year, due, primarily, to inflation. The U.S. equity market is now in a bear market, down approximately 25% from its highs, and the protective role that bonds usually play when equity markets fall has not materialized this year. When equity prices fall, [...]

So Far This Year Coming into 2022, both stocks and bonds were richly valued. Valuations were at a premium because corporate profitability was strong, interest rates were low, the economy was re-opening, and market participants thought inflation was temporary, primarily due to supply chain issues that would resolve themselves. This year, as we are all experiencing, inflation [...]

Simply put, inflationary pressures occur when demand outstrips supply.  However, when demand dries up, recession often follows as the economy shrinks. During the last two periods of great economic stress, the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 and the COVID-related shut-down of March 2020, the Federal Reserve focused on creating demand to sustain the economy and [...]

Update as of 03/10/2022 Like many of you, we greatly admire the determination and perseverance of the Ukrainian people and are appalled by the indiscriminate brutality of the Russian invasion.  While it is impossible to predict how this conflict will end, we do expect significant market volatility in the near term largely driven by daily [...]

Until the onset of COVID-19, the US economy had been in a period of slow and steady growth and low inflation since the recovery from the 2008 Great Financial crisis.  COVID-19 broke that cycle – after an initial and dramatic decline, the US economy and financial markets recovered quickly.  This was due to massive governmental [...]

Although the COVID-19 induced recession last year was short-lived, the on-going effects of COVID-19 on the global economy persist.  Prior to the pandemic, the U.S. inflation rate was contained; GDP growth, though positive, was struggling to rise above 2% annually; the super-cycle of commodity price declines was continuing; global supply chains were robust, despite the [...]

The US Economy:  Will it be too hot, too cold, or just right? At first glance, the information we consider in evaluating whether the economy will be “too hot, too cold, or just right” appears to be confusing.  Depending on what data you focus on, a case can be made for any of these three [...]