State of Affairs – Our Perspective

Most likely you are asking the same question we are. What is going on in Washington? And how and when does it end? We clearly have an acrimonious situation in Congress that has caused a government shutdown.  Coupled with the looming debt ceiling deadline of October 17th, this state of affairs is creating mounting uncertainty and great angst for investors. It must be remembered this is a political problem and most likely not an economic problem. Most economists forecast a shutdown that gets resolved within 30 days will impact 4th quarter GDP by just 0.1-0.2% and have no ongoing negative impact. In fact, our best guess is that GDP growth over the next two years will be relatively steady around the 2% level. This is certainly not robust growth but better than most developed economies.READ MORE

2Q 2013 Market Commentary

“For the loser now will be later to win

For the times they are a-changin’”

– Bob Dylan

With a modest improvement in unemployment, a nascent housing recovery and continued accommodative Federal Reserve, the US markets continued to generate positive returns, albeit with considerable volatility in the second half of the quarter.  In the prior quarter’s Market Commentary in the Guardian, Randall Buck suggested that a short term pullback in the US market would not be surprising.  That forecast was prescient indeed, from late May to late June, the S&P 500® had a peak to trough correction of 7.5% then posted positive returns in the final days of the quarter. READ MORE

Estate Planning in a Post 2012 Taxpayer Relief Act Environment

For many people, the last few months of 2012 were an estate planning headache weighing the costs and benefits of gifting to children or trusts while debating whether the Federal government would increase or decrease the lifetime unified credit.  The lifetime unified credit is the total combined amount you may transfer while alive (without incurring gift tax liability) and through your estate (without incurring estate tax liability), referred to hereinafter as the “exemption amount”.  For the better part of a decade, there has been uncertainty and the looming deadline of legal change.  After the passage of the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 (“Act”), we now know the rules of the game going forward.   READ MORE

Coldstream Special Event – Jason Trennert, Strategas Partners Presentation

Strategas Investment Strategy Outlook – Equities & The T.I.N.A. Factor January 2013

Coldstream had the honor of hosting Strategas Research Partners on January 23rd at Overlake GCC. Strategas’ Chief Strategist and a regular on CNBC, Jason Trennert shared his major investment themes for 2013 in a post-election environment with “fiscal cliff” uncertainty.

Watch the video: https://www.coldstream.com/events

 

Fiscal Cliff-Hanger

It came down to the very last minute, but compromise was made and the majority of the fiscal cliff averted.  Not surprisingly the markets rallied early on news of the pending compromise.  What was surprising was the resilience of the market during weeks of tough negotiations.  Those expecting a repeat of the prior year’s debt ceiling debate and market fall were disappointed.  With the compromise in place much of the uncertainty over tax policy has been put aside.  The Bush tax cut rates have been made permanent for the vast majority of tax payers.  Still ahead, a debt ceiling compromise and meaningful tax and spending reform as the fiscal cliff “fix” has added $4.6 Trillion to projected deficits over the coming decade. READ MORE

Thoughts on the “Fiscal Cliff” from the Coldstream Investment Strategy Group

With the elections over, the media has turned its attention to negotiations between the U.S. House, Senate and Administration over tax policy and spending programs to avert what has been dubbed the “fiscal cliff” facing our country.  One of our research resources, Strategas Research Partners, provides a list below of the various tax extensions, programs and spending cuts set to change in 2013 if action isn’t taken between now and year end. Investors have clearly been nervous about the outcome of these negotiations; the S&P 500 stock market index has fallen (as of November 16th) more than 6% from its early October level, with the NASDAQ composite and small cap stocks down even more.READ MORE

Choppy Waters

After a strong first quarter of the year, market sentiment in the second quarter eroded amid a variety of macro factors.  These factors included the impact of the fiscal cliff facing the US economy heading into 2013, the turmoil from the European financial crisis, economic headwinds of stagnant earnings growth in the US and a slowing in emerging markets, particularly China.  While any one of these disruptions may not have derailed the market, combined they created an environment in which capital moved out of risk assets to safer but low yielding credit instruments.READ MORE

A Refreshing Twist to the Pitfalls of Sudden Wealth Syndrome

In 2009, Sports Illustrated estimated that 78% of NFL players are bankrupt within two years of ending their careers, and that 60% of NBA players are broke within 5 years of retiring. Although not as dismal, Lottery winners also have an extremely poor track record of successfully retaining their wealth. Many of these individuals suffer from Sudden Wealth Syndrome (SWS), a term coined by Dr. Stephen Golbart and Joan Di Furia of the Money, Meaning & Choices Institute (MMCI) in the late 1990’s. Through their investment advisory firm’s dot com and lottery winner clientele, they witnessed a host of psychological issues that they associated with the stresses of new or sudden wealth resulting in financial disasters.READ MORE

© 2018 Coldstream Capital Management, Inc. & Rainier Group Investment Advisory LLC d.b.a. Coldstream Wealth Management. All data shown includes information from combined entities. All Rights Reserved.