State of Affairs – Our Perspective

Most likely you are asking the same question we are. What is going on in Washington? And how and when does it end? We clearly have an acrimonious situation in Congress that has caused a government shutdown.  Coupled with the looming debt ceiling deadline of October 17th, this state of affairs is creating mounting uncertainty and great angst for investors. It must be remembered this is a political problem and most likely not an economic problem. Most economists forecast a shutdown that gets resolved within 30 days will impact 4th quarter GDP by just 0.1-0.2% and have no ongoing negative impact. In fact, our best guess is that GDP growth over the next two years will be relatively steady around the 2% level. This is certainly not robust growth but better than most developed economies.READ MORE

2Q 2013 Market Commentary

“For the loser now will be later to win

For the times they are a-changin’”

– Bob Dylan

With a modest improvement in unemployment, a nascent housing recovery and continued accommodative Federal Reserve, the US markets continued to generate positive returns, albeit with considerable volatility in the second half of the quarter.  In the prior quarter’s Market Commentary in the Guardian, Randall Buck suggested that a short term pullback in the US market would not be surprising.  That forecast was prescient indeed, from late May to late June, the S&P 500® had a peak to trough correction of 7.5% then posted positive returns in the final days of the quarter. READ MORE

Market Update and Outlook – 2Q 2013

In every life we have some trouble

When you worry you make it double

Don’t worry, be happy…..

Bobby McFerrin 1988

While all of the problems the market has been worrying about for the last few years have not been solved, it seems that “the can was kicked down road” enough this quarter for investors to adopt the attitude of Bobby McFerrin. Stock market investors seem to prefer environments where the politicians in Washington “can do no harm”. Early in the first quarter clashes over the debt ceiling and spending cuts were deferred until later in the year and a compromise was reached over tax increases, turning the “fiscal cliff” into more of a “fiscal slope”. With worries about fiscal policy on the backburner, the continued pumping of liquidity into the economy through the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing program and reasonable domestic economic growth, the stage was set for a market rally.  The S&P 500 continued its pattern of the three previous years with a very strong first quarter rising 10.6%. Small Cap U.S. stocks, as measured by the Russell 2000 index, also advanced 12.4%.READ MORE

Tax Filing Reminders….

The filing due date for your individual income tax return is coming up and is due on April 15, 2013.  If you are not going to be able to file your return on time, you can request additional time by filing an extension by the April 15th due date.  The extension gives you an additional six months; until October 15th to file your return.   However, it’s important to note the extension does not give you any extra time to pay any taxes due.  If you do not pay the taxes that you owe by the April 15th due date, you will owe interest on the taxes due and you may owe penalties as well. READ MORE

Thoughts on the “Fiscal Cliff” from the Coldstream Investment Strategy Group

With the elections over, the media has turned its attention to negotiations between the U.S. House, Senate and Administration over tax policy and spending programs to avert what has been dubbed the “fiscal cliff” facing our country.  One of our research resources, Strategas Research Partners, provides a list below of the various tax extensions, programs and spending cuts set to change in 2013 if action isn’t taken between now and year end. Investors have clearly been nervous about the outcome of these negotiations; the S&P 500 stock market index has fallen (as of November 16th) more than 6% from its early October level, with the NASDAQ composite and small cap stocks down even more.READ MORE

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