Beyond the Noise: A Look at Greece, Puerto Rico, & China

Three events in financial markets have received significant media attention in the last week: a potential Greece exit from the Eurozone, a potential default by Puerto Rico on its bond holdings, and the significant decline (after a rapid advance) in China’s equity markets.  The Coldstream Investment Strategy Group thought it important to cut through the “media noise” and let you know our views on these events.


GREECE

Near Term Uncertainty in Greece

As you may have heard, Greece missed a $1.7 loan billion payment to the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday.  While this event and the closure of the Greek banking system are dominating news coverage this week, a $3.9 billion bond payment due to the European Central Bank on July 20 is much more important to world markets, since failure to pay would put Greece into a formal state of default.  The situation remains extremely fluid, with developments coming nearly hourly.  It is unlikely that current negotiations will lead to an agreement prior to a scheduled July 5 referendum, which will indicate whether the public will accept further austerity in order to stay in the Eurozone.  Since the current government was elected on an anti-austerity platform, it may collapse if the referendum passes or if a deal on further spending cuts and tax increases is struck in the meantime.

Potential OutcomesREAD MORE

The 3rd Quarter Winds Down

September 2013 marks the five-year anniversary of the financial market collapse in 2008; we have certainly come a long way in those five years. With the S&P 500 and the Dow eclipsing all-time highs and interest rates having stayed low for the longest stretch in 50 years, most investors have already received quite a benefit from the fount of cheap money.  Since September 2008, a meaningful economic recovery has taken place.  Look at the results since the equity markets bottomed out in March of 2009:READ MORE

Coldstream Special Event – Jason Trennert, Strategas Partners Presentation

Strategas Investment Strategy Outlook – Equities & The T.I.N.A. Factor January 2013

Coldstream had the honor of hosting Strategas Research Partners on January 23rd at Overlake GCC. Strategas’ Chief Strategist and a regular on CNBC, Jason Trennert shared his major investment themes for 2013 in a post-election environment with “fiscal cliff” uncertainty.

Watch the video: https://www.coldstream.com/events

 

Fiscal Cliff-Hanger

It came down to the very last minute, but compromise was made and the majority of the fiscal cliff averted.  Not surprisingly the markets rallied early on news of the pending compromise.  What was surprising was the resilience of the market during weeks of tough negotiations.  Those expecting a repeat of the prior year’s debt ceiling debate and market fall were disappointed.  With the compromise in place much of the uncertainty over tax policy has been put aside.  The Bush tax cut rates have been made permanent for the vast majority of tax payers.  Still ahead, a debt ceiling compromise and meaningful tax and spending reform as the fiscal cliff “fix” has added $4.6 Trillion to projected deficits over the coming decade. READ MORE

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