Signals from the Noise – Market Update

I recently read a NY Times Magazine article by Clay Tarver, detailing the remarkable story of Jason Everman. Everman had the incredible distinction of being kicked out of both Nirvana and Soundgarden prior to their explosive success in the 1990s. He later, as he put it “decided to do the most un-cool thing, join the Army.” Everman persevered through training and eventually joined the Rangers and then onto Special Forces, distinguishing himself through more than a decade of hot deployments. Post Army, Everman graduated from Columbia University with a degree in philosophy. On his plans for the future “I’ll probably just be a bartender somewhere.” In a life that has played out like a Greek tragedy, Jason is still the wise student attempting to divine messages the Gods have been sending him. Noisy as those signals may be.READ MORE

Oil Prices and Market Volatility Expectations

The end of 2014 brought yet again an increase in market volatility, angst surrounding global economic growth, and continued unease about the longer term central bank strategies and actions. Several key points are worth highlighting:

• Volatility in the stock market has picked up in the past few months. Concerns about global economic growth, the health of emerging markets, geopolitical tensions, and plunging oil prices have investors on edge.
• Investors continue to rotate toward defensive sectors such as consumer staples, health care, and utilities, helped in part by the steady decline in long-term interest rates. More cyclical sectors such as basic materials, industrials, and technology are falling out of favor.
• The US economy continues to improve at a below normal but nonetheless growing pace. It is hard to find another area around the globe in the same condition. Europe has stalled, Russia is close to a depression with the collapse of their currency, and their number one export, oil, is down 50% in US dollar terms.

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