September Market Commentary
September started out great and ended with a whimper. The market as measured by the S&P 500 reached an all-time high two weeks ago when the S&P closed at 2011. Subsequently we have corrected 4% on an intra-day basis. Most pundits have been calling for a correction for months and the majority are looking for something like 10%. In an ongoing Bull Market you can always expect a 4-7% correction at any time as this is quite normal and our guess is any correction will be contained within those bands. Currently the markets are trading not on economics but on geo-political factors. We have had the Ukrainian situation, Scottish Independence, Hong Kong Demonstrations and ongoing turmoil in the Middle East. Somehow the large cap domestic markets have shrugged this off and only declined 4%. We believe this is encouraging and bodes well for better markets. It is noteworthy that after a mid-term election the markets have not declined once since 1946. This too should pass.
As you may have heard, Bill Gross left PIMCO today for Janus Capital. Mr. Gross founded PIMCO; the firm was subsequently bought by Allianz. Apparently, Mr. Gross was forced out. He was the manager of PIMCO’s flagship Total Return Fund, which has underperformed its peers recently, but has a long and excellent track record. Currently, the Total Return Fund is on Coldstream’s approved manager list. The Coldstream Investment Strategies Group will meet on Tuesday to decide whether to keep the Total Return Fund on that approved list now that Mr. Gross has departed.
